In spite of heightened volatility in stocks as the quarter drew to a close, the markets generally moved higher over the period. For the quarter, US large company stocks rose 8.9%, smaller company US stocks were up 4.9%, foreign stocks were higher by 4.8%, and US bonds, broadly measured, were up 0.6%. While stock indexes were higher for the quarter, the markets were mixed, with small company and foreign stocks having lost value, while large company stocks have moved higher.
Posts Tagged ‘economy’
As we concluded the first full quarter of economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, stock values were generally higher, with large company stocks up 20.5%, smaller company stocks up 25.4%, and foreign stocks up 14.9%. Bonds, broadly measured, rose by 2.9%. These returns have an impressive luster in part because they are measured relative to the market trough of late March. Overall stocks remain lower for the year.
In The Resilient Investor, we noted that this is an era of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Five years after the publication of our book, which was devoted to planning for major disruptions, it turns out even we underestimated how prescient our framework would be!
Typically, volatility is described in terms of the severity of equity market price fluctuation. Severe peaks and valleys in a short period of time typically reveal the levels of investor uncertainty in the absence of dependable economic patterns.
Market uncertainty increased when Trump was nominated and elected and was generally higher than normal throughout 2018 and 2019. Although it skyrocketed in February and March, as the pandemic emerged, it has actually been decreasing the past few months.
Nowhere in any of the 2020 economic outlook reports was there any mention of a global pandemic, yet here we are. While journalists from sensible corners of the news media world have for years issued warnings about the health and economic risks of pandemics, the prospects for such an event seemed distant and abstract to most. The machinery of the global economy chugged on.
The novel corona virus outbreak began with a single known case on December 10 in Wuhan, China. By the month’s end, the new virus was identified by Chinese health officials. In mid-January, cases were being reported in other countries, and the virus began to spread rapidly. Throughout March, new infections and upsetting mortality reports issued by countries around the globe worsened as the days passed.
The U.S. stock market dipped notably in early August and exhibited considerable volatility throughout the month. The market drop and subsequent instability, which stretched into September, were related to concerns about growth prospects for the U.S. and global economies. These concerns were validated by the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates in late July—the first rate cut since the Great Recession.
This article is from our archives as part of the 100th issue special, celebrating twenty-five years of quarterly newsletters.
Policy matters. Natural Investments has participated in public policy conversations and attended meetings on the Hill in Washington, D.C., for years and will continue to serve as a voice for fair and just financial regulations.
It’s been over a year since the fall of Lehman Brothers sparked major tremors in the U.S. financial system that rippled around the planet. Though lawmakers called for reform, much of the financial services industry remains unchanged a year later. The wholesale restructuring advocated by the social investment industry, economists, and academics has thus far been met with strong opposition from the industry, and Congress’ lack of expertise left them unable to do anything other than infuse large banks with cash.
The needed structural changes in our system remain conceptual and haven’t even been fully debated. Yes, there were calls for bonuses to be recalled and executive pay to be restricted,
Both stock and bond markets rebounded strongly during the first quarter of 2019. In the U.S., large company stocks rose 13.6%, small companies were up 14.6%, and bonds were up 2.9%. Foreign stocks rose 10%. The markets were lifted by news that the Fed had reduced the number of planned interest rate increases for 2019, from a prior estimate of three hikes down to zero. Reports of slowing global economic growth and low inflation contributed to the revised interest rate position.
The final quarter of 2018 hit with a dramatic downturn for the stock market, while bond investments generally performed well. Large U.S. company stocks were down 13.5% over the quarter and down 4.4% for 2018. Small company stocks were down 20.2% this quarter and 11% on the year. Bonds were 1.6% higher for the quarter, though they were flat for the year.
The fourth quarter setback for stocks was abrupt and vexing. Large company stocks had recently risen 10.5% by the end of the third quarter. But by the year’s end, they were down 4.4% in a sharp reversal. Analysts have been reminding investors for years that a notable sell-off could arrive unexpectedly as the rising market endured longer and longer.
Stock markets were generally higher over the waning months of summer, with stocks of large US companies for the quarter up by 7.7%, small U.S. companies up 3.6%, and foreign stocks up 1.4%. Bonds, broadly measured, were flat for the quarter, though down 1.6% so far this year.
Trade tensions have remained front and center in economic news as the administration has continued to press for additional tariffs, as announced during the quarter. However, vigorous growth of the U.S. economy,